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經濟學人:發達國家經濟衰退(2)

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The shape of the corporate sector is the second consideration.

經濟部門的形態是第二個考慮因素。
Economies with a large share of small firms are more likely to be scarred by long shutdowns.
擁有眾多小公司的經濟體更有可能因長期停工而傷痕累累。
Minnows tend to have few if any cash buffers, making it hard for them to survive a drought in revenues.
小公司沒有多少現金可以周轉,這讓它們很難在收入減少的情況下生存下來。
A survey by researchers at the University of Chicago, Harvard University and the University of Illinois
芝加哥大學、哈佛大學以及伊利諾伊大學的研究人員進行一項調查發現,
finds that a quarter of small firms in America do not have enough cash on hand to last even a month.
美國四分之一的小公司的現金甚至不足以支撐一個月。
Nearly half of Italians and Australians work for firms with fewer than ten employees, compared with a fifth in Britain and an even lower share in America.
近一半的意大利人和澳大利亞人就職于員工人數少于10人的公司,相比之下,英國有五分之一,美國的比例更低。
A third determinant of the economic pain to come is the nature of fiscal support.
經濟危機的第三個決定性因素是財政支持的本質。
Rich countries have deployed stimulus on an unprecedented scale. Even by the most conservative estimate,
發達國家會實施大規模經濟刺激計劃。即使按照最保守的估計,
these packages are more than twice as large as in 2008-09. But the size of the stimulus varies widely across countries.
這些計劃的規模也是2008到2009年間的兩倍多。但各國刺激計劃的規模差別很大。
Most tallies find that support in America and Japan is the most generous, as a share of GDP;
大多數統計發現,美國和日本的財政支持占GDP比例最高;

發達國家經濟衰退(2)

investors, who see their assets as a haven, are happy to provide the necessary funding.

將自己的資產視為避風港的投資者很樂意提供必要的資金。
Yet some euro-area governments with high debt levels are more cautious, perhaps constrained by the fear that,
但一些債臺高筑的歐元區政府則更加謹慎,可能是擔心,
as members of a currency union, they enjoy only a partial backstop from the central bank.
作為貨幣聯盟的成員,他們只享受到中央銀行的部分支持。
The average fiscal boost in France, Spain and Italy, as a share of GDP, is about half of that provided in Germany.
法國、西班牙和意大利的平均財政刺激占GDP的比例約為德國的一半。
The design of the stimulus, though, matters as much as its size.
雖然,刺激計劃的設計和其規模一樣重要。
Broadly speaking, rich countries have taken one of two approaches to preserving living standards.
一般來說,發達國家采取了兩者之一來維持生活水平。
Some are concentrating on supplementing household incomes.
一些國家專注于增加家庭收入。
America is sending cheques to families and making unemployment benefits far more generous; Japan is offering handouts to the needy.
美國向美國家庭發放支票,讓失業津貼更加可觀;日本在向窮人發放救濟品。
By contrast, policy in northern Europe and Australia aims mostly to maintain employment by subsidising wages.
相比之下,北歐和澳大利亞的政策主要是通過補貼工資來維持就業。
Government pledges to protect jobs are normally a bad idea.
政府承諾保護就業通常是個壞主意。
They prevent workers moving from failing sectors to up-and-coming ones, slowing the recovery. The coronavirus recession may be different, however.
這樣就阻止工人從衰退的行業轉向有前途的行業,從而減緩了經濟復蘇。但冠狀病毒所導致的經濟衰退可能不一樣。
If the lockdowns are lifted soon, some European economies will be able to resume production quickly.
如果很快解除封鎖,那么一些歐洲經濟體將能夠迅速恢復生產。
Elsewhere workers will have to search for jobs, and bosses to hire them.
在其他地方,工人們將需要尋找工作,而老板們要雇傭他們。
Some American workers will even do better to stay on benefits than find work; according to Noah Williams of the University of Wisconsin-Madison,
一些美國工人甚至會繼續領取救濟金,而不去找工作;根據威斯康星大學的Noah Williams,
benefits in six states could exceed 130% of the average wage.
六個州的福利超過了平均工資的130%。
That will mean it takes longer for GDP to recover its pre-pandemic level once the lockdowns lift.
這將意味著,一旦解除封鎖,GDP將需要更長的時間才能恢復到疫前水平。
Instead of leading to a painful few months, the damage could be much longer-lasting.
這種傷害可能會持續更長時間,而不僅是幾個月。

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exceed [ik'si:d]

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vt. 超過,勝過,超出界限
vi. 領先

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haven ['heivn]

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n. 港口,避難所,安息所 v. 安置 ... 于港中,

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prevent [pri'vent]

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v. 預防,防止

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protect [prə'tekt]

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vt. 保護,投保

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scale [skeil]

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generous ['dʒenərəs]

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unemployment ['ʌnim'plɔimənt]

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tend [tend]

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